It may only be the end of September, but the race to land a Best Director Oscar nomination may be over before it starts. That’s partially due to the massive critical and commercial success of both Christopher Nolan’s “Oppenheimer” and Greta Gerwig’s “Barbie.” Throw in Yorgos Lanthimos‘ already lauded Venice Film Festival Golden Lion winner “Poor Things” and cinema maestro Martin Scorsese’s “Killers of the Flower Moon,” and, well, there might be just one slot left.
READ MORE: “Oppenheimer” and “Poor Things” are your 2024 Best Picture frontrunners…for now
Frankly, some awards consultants are going to have to pray for Lanthimos or even, yes, the one and only Scorsese (who has only missed out on one Best Director nomination this century) to fade for their contenders to have a shot. That’s unlikely at this point, so that means we’ve got one slot available and many notable and worthy filmmakers vying for it.
At the top of the list is Justine Triet who already won the Palme d’Or for “Anatomy of a Fall” at the 2023 Cannes Film Festival. Jonathan Glazer’s “The Zone of Interest” arguably could have won it (it got second place instead). Both films made their mark with the slew of buzz-spreading Academy members at the 2023 Telluride Film Festival. Another film that wowed Telluride was Andrew Haigh’s “All of Us Strangers,” and the British contingent in the Director’s Branch could give his candidacy a boost.
Celine Song was seen as a likely nominee after the “Past Lives” premiere at Sundance last January, but the film has faded somewhat from an industry perspective in the months since. Netflix will give “Maestro” and its director, Bradley Cooper, a strong campaign, but is that enough for him to make the cut? Or will Todd Haynes finally earn his first directing nomination for another Netflix release, “May December”? Or maybe “The Holdovers” director Alexander Payne has a bigger comeback than expected and gets recognized by his peers? Ponder. [Published on September 28]
LIKELY
Christopher Nolan, “Oppenheimer”
Greta Gerwig, “Barbie”
Yorgos Lanthimos, “Poor Things”
Martin Scorsese, “Killers of the Flower Moon”
ALMOST THERE
Justine Triet, “Anatomy of a Fall”
Jonathan Glazer, “The Zone of Interest”
Andrew Haigh, “All of Us Strangers”
Bradly Cooper, “Maestro”
Celine Song, “Past Lives”
POSSIBLE
Alexander Payne, “The Holdovers”
Todd Haynes, “May December”
Blitz Bazawule, “The Color Purple”*
Ben Affleck, “Air”
Ava DuVernay, “Origin”
LONGSHOTS
Michael Mann, “Ferrari”*
Cord Jefferson, “American Fiction”
Craig Gillespie, “Dumb Money”
Ridley Scott, “Napoleon”*
Sean Durkin, “The Iron Claw”*
Emerald Fennell, “Saltburn”
*not screened at publication