If staging the SAG Awards, the PGA Awards, and the Film Independent Spirit Awards within 48 hours of each other was meant to influence Oscar voting in any way and not just some coincidence (cough), well, it may have worked. And that’s a big emphasis on “may.” Delightfully, the three events also reminded us of just how chaotic the actual awards ceremonies can be. A familiar aspect of most Oscar seasons that has been somewhat absent up until now.
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It all began on Saturday night when one Oscar race was locked up and another saw the door swung wide open. Except, it didn’t? We’ll get to that in a minute, but first, Cillian Murphy’s win for Lead Actor in a Motion Picture pretty much put him in pole position to take the Academy Award for Best Actor. Following Murphy’s expected BAFTA win last weekend, “The Holdovers’” Paul Giamatti needed to take the SAG Award to at least give the race a competitive aura. That didn’t happen and, in many ways, is evidence of how “Oppenheimer” will dominate the Oscars telecast on March 10 (Robert Downey, Jr.’s win, the movie taking Ensemble, the DGA Award, and every other guild honor hasn’t hurt either).
The win that seemed to rattle many was Lily Gladstone taking Lead Actress in a Motion Picture for “Killers of the Flower Moon.” Although, why? This was not that big a surprise. Despite Leonardo DiCaprio’s snub by his acting peers (by the way, he was eventually snubbed for every major industry honor), the actors recognized both Gladstone and Robert De Niro and gave the movie an Ensemble nomination. The other leading Best Actress contender, Emma Stone, won the BAFTA, but “Poor Things” didn’t land an Ensemble nomination and SAG picked Willem Dafoe over Mark Ruffalo, who landed an Oscar nod, respectively. Gladstone was likely always winning SAG setting up a showdown between the two actresses. This was anticipated for months. And, remember, Gladstone didn’t even make the shortlist for BAFTA (don’t discount it).
Meanwhile, waiting in the wings to potentially muck up the results is “Anatomy of a Fall’s” Sandra Hüller who took the European Film Award in December and a Cesar Award this past weekend. She may be a red herring to win but could siphon enough votes away from either Stone or Gladstone to influence the outcome.
We’ll have more to say about this in our final Oscar predictions, but it should be noted that Gladstone was everywhere this weekend. She was at the SAG Awards, she was the Honorary Chair at the Spirit Awards which meant she came on stage and presented (and got a separate shout-out from Film Independent president Josh Welsh) and then she did double duty at the PGA Awards presenting Motion Picture nominee “Killers of the Flower Moon” where she gave a decidedly longer speech than some of the other nominees. Granted, the “American Fiction” cast was at all three events and the “Oppenheimer” and Stone were at both SAG and PGA. But throw in a deserved Lifetime Achievement win for Martin Scorsese, which he used to tout “Killers” first before finally segueing to a story about the early days of his career. At the PGA Awards alone we saw the same scene between Gladstone and DiCaprio from “Killers” during the same ceremony twice. Maybe it was overkill for a chosen few, but it certainly felt like a lot.
The SAG Awards also cemented wins for Downey Jr. and “The Holdovers” Da’Vine Joy Randolph, not that there was any question regarding the latter. Randolph has so dominated the critics and guild awards this season that her wins stand alongside the somewhat recent historic runs of Mo’Nique (“Precious”), Cate Blanchett (the already forgotten sweep of “Blue Jasmine”), and Patricia Arquette (“Boyhood”). Pay attention, this does not happen as often as you might think.
And we can’t let this moment pass in reflecting on the SAG Awards decision to have Tan France interview winners “backstage” during the ceremony. This is not the first time an awards show has tried this. The BAFTA Awards famously attempted this two years ago when they were playing with their live-not-life portions of the show. Neither ceremony was able to avoid making it feel cringe-worthy. It’s clear, in this scenario, the SAG show producers were hoping for some of the irreverent banter winners often give in the press room after they’ve walked off state. The difference, of course, is in those press rooms the talent knows they are not on live television (or streaming in this case). Their guard is down. Outside of Pedro Pascal’s interview which, um, yeah, it was just awkward. It didn’t help that on the red carpet pre-show France didn’t seem to know the projects some of the stars were nominated for (or know what to ask them). If it has to be Netflix talent, there’s got to be better options in the wings. “Nailed It’s” Nicole Beyer? “Great British Bake Off” co-host Alison Hammond? We’re open to suggestions.
As for the Spirit Awards, may we suggest Film Independent invite host Aidy Bryant back for a second go around if she’s willing? Bryant was doing a fine job even before the loud “Free Palestine” protestor started his bullhorn almost a third of the way through the ceremony. The “SNL” veteran was a pro’s pro, doing her best to distract from the monotonous chant and keep the show going.
The protestor – who was heard through most of the telecast – disrupted what was yet another well-produced awards show full of big-name presenters and very memorable speeches. Oh, and it was funny too (really). We’re still scratching our heads about how this production isn’t being streamed on Hulu, Apple TV+, Netflix, Prime Video, or, for the love of god, LA’s KTLA Channel 5 (wouldn’t a New York channel broadcast it too?).
The Spirits also gave another screenplay win for “American Fiction’s” Cord Jefferson (the Oscar is happening), a well-deserved moment in the sun for “May December’s” Sammy Burch, and, last but not least, a rare award show win for Jeffrey Wright. The “Fiction” star hadn’t won any major awards since an Emmy and a Golden Globe for “Angels in America” almost 20 years ago. This was his inaugural Spirit Award win after landing his first nomination way back in 1997 for “Basquiat.”
Back in Hollywood, the Producer’s Guild Awards featured some slightly punch-drunk presenters most of whom were presenting at their second awards show of the day, and few upsets (although “Black Mirror: Beyond the Sea” taking Streamed or Televised Movie even surprised its producer who was completely unprepared). “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” took the Animated Feature prize which makes the Oscar for that category intriguing. Will enough “Spider-Man” fans carry it over the finish line? Or will Hayao Miyazaki’s “The Boy and the Heron” give the legendary Japanese auteur another Academy Award? It might be a flip ’em.
Most awards observers (consultants, publicists, media) couldn’t remember the last time all three events were held on the same weekend, let alone during Oscar voting. If the perception is it moved the needle for Gladstone to triumph, don’t be surprised if this becomes a regular fixture on the awards season calendar. At least everyone has a weekend to breathe before the Oscars.