If you told someone a year ago that a sequel to a 36-year-old action movie would not only become the biggest blockbuster of the year, but also a surefire Best Picture nominee they would have likely said you were crazy. 12 months later, Joseph Kosinski’s “Top Gun: Maverick” (or maybe that should be framed as Tom Cruise‘s “Top Gun: Maverick”) has thrown out all the (recent) rules on what a Best Picture contender can be. Welcome to the 2023 Best Picture race, where sequels may (or may not) dominate a field that should make ABC executives cry tears of potential ratings joy.
READ MORE: The year of Best Picture Sequels…Maybe [Contender Countdown]
Out of the films screened so far, there are four that seem more than likely to make the Best Picture cut: the aforementioned “Top Gun,” Steven Spielberg’s “The Fabelmans,” Martin McDonagh’s “The Banshees of Inisherin” and The Daniels’ “Everything Everywhere All At Once.” But, if you had to lay money down in Vegas, only Spielberg’s personal drama is the slam dunk lock for a nod. For the moment, at least.
In fact, for the first time ever, there are multiple sequels in the mix. James Cameron’s “Avatar: The Way of Water” hopes to duplicate “Avatar’s” Best Picture nod as does Ryan Coogler’s “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” for its namesake. And after a fantastic reception at TIFF, Ryan Johnson’s “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” may unexpectedly turn out to be Netflix’s best hope for a nod this year.
Not only are sequels surrounding the winner’s circle, but so are other big-budget studio films such as Gina Prince-Bythewood’s “The Woman King,” Baz Luhrmann’s “Elvis” (who would have guessed this in May?), and, potentially, Damien Chazelle’s “Babylon.” But, this is an Academy that has shown more prestige tastes as the membership has expanded and become decidedly more international. That means Sarah Polley’s “Women Talking,” Todd Field’s “TAR” and Lukas Dhont’s “Close” are in the mix. And if a majority of those unseen studio productions falter, well, watch out and step out of the fray. A wild, wild west shootout to make one of the 10 Best Picture slots will absolutely be on deck. [Posted Sept 21]
*denotes a film not screened at publication
LIKELY
“The Fabelmans”
“The Banshees of Inisherin”
“Everything Everywhere All At Once”
“Top Gun: Maverick”
ALMOST THERE
“Avatar: The Way of Water”*
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”*
“Babylon”*
“The Woman King”
“Women Talking”
“TAR”
“Close”
POSSIBLE
“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”
“Empire of Light”
“Elvis”
“She Said”*
“Armageddon Time”
“Triangle of Sadness”
“The Pale Blue Eye”
“A Man Called Otto”*
“Till”*
LONGSHOTS
“
“NOPE”
“Living”
“The Son”
“Bardo”
“The Inspection”
“The Northman”
“The Wonder”
“Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio”*
“All The Beauty and the Bloodshed”
“Amsterdam”
“A Man Called Otto”*
“The Menu”
“The Whale”
“Devotion”