Is any race for a nomination in this category moot? Has Steven Spielberg already won it for his personal, Hollywood industry-friendly drama “The Fabelmans”? Possibly, but not probably. The Director’s branch of the Academy has become one of the most international of all the branches. It’s also one of the smaller branches which means that diversity seriously skews its nominations. In fact, last year Spielberg was one of just two American-born nominees. The question is who will join the three-time Academy Award winner in one of Oscar’s most prestigious categories?
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At this point, the two other “likely” nominees are Martin McDonagh for “The Banshees of Inisherin” and Todd Field for “TAR.” Both men have two of the most critically acclaimed films of the year. The former won an Oscar for Best Short Film in 2005 and has two Original Screenplay and a Best Picture nod. The latter has two Adapted Screenplay nods and a Best Picture nomination as well. Again, they are “likely,” but with so many films still unseen (those are denoted by an *), they certainly aren’t in Spielberg’s safe slot.
What’s most intriguing is whether the blockbuster helmers can make something of a comeback in this category. James Cameron won Best Director in 1999 for “Titanic” and was nominated again in 2010 for “Avatar.” It’s a sequel to that blockbuster, “Avatar: The Way of Water” which may earn him a third Directing nod. Ryan Coogler’s “Black Panther” earned a Best Picture nomination in 2019. The filmmaker didn’t make the Best Director cut, but if he pulls off a cinematic miracle without Chadwick Boseman, it’s not out of the question. Also circling in the clouds is Joseph Kosinski whose “Top Gun: Maverick” was a critical and audience blockbuster, winning over the most curmudgeonly of naysayers.
More likely contenders include “Women Talking’s” Sarah Polley, “Everything Everywhere All At Once’s” The Daniels, and, potentially, “Babylon’s” Damien Chazelle, who won this trophy in 2017 for “La La Land.” [Posted Sept. 21]
LIKELY
Steven Spielberg, “The Fabelmans”
Martin McDonagh, “The Banshees of Inisherin”
Todd Field, “TAR”
ALMOST THERE
The Daniels, “Everything Everywhere All At Once”
James Cameron, “Avatar: The Way of Water”*
Sarah Polley, “Women Talking”
Joseph Kosinski, “Top Gun: Maverick”
Damien Chazelle, “Babylon”*
POSSIBLE
Ryan Coogler, “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”*
Ryan Johnson, “Glass Onion: A Knives out Mystery”
Gina Prince-Bythewood, “The Woman King”
Jordan Peele, “NOPE”
Ruben Östlund, “Triangle of Sadness”
Lukas Dhont, “Close”
Park Chan-wook, “Decision to Leave”
Maria Schrader, “She Said”*
LONGSHOTS
Sam Mendes, “Empire of Light”
Guillermo del Toro, “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio”
Alejandro González Iñárritu, “Bardo”
James Gray, “Armageddon Time”
David O. Russell, “Amsterdamn”
Chinonye Chukwu, “Till”*
Noah Baumbach, “White Noise”