Another Oscar season is rounding the quarter pole with the finish line in sight. This year, some major contenders have faded, a few surprises have emerged, and three late players are expected to have an impact on the nominations. Like most presidential election years, it’s been a strange season (members’ attention is usually diverted for most of the fall), and the horrific wildfires found The Academy having to extend voting twice. And that event, one that is top of mind still for many Los Angeles residents, may throw a curve ball in a year full of competitive categories. That makes predictions somewhat more difficult than in other years.
READ MORE: “Wicked,” “Conclave,” and “The Penguin” earn 2025 PGA Awards Nominations
It’s not an understatement that the voting delay, concerns that members haven’t seen all of the major films, and, perhaps, slightly fewer LA voters than usual, which could lead to some major surprises. That’s part of the game, the Oscars have always been, effectively, a political campaign where anything can happen. And there is a feeling among some that a ton of surprises are on tap.
Or, maybe not.
Keeping all that in mind, some educated Oscar nomination predictions to consider.
Please note: We do not predict the short film categories. It’s the biggest crapshoot out there.
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ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked”
Karla Sofia Gascon, “Emilia Pérez”
Marianne Jean-Baptiste, “Hard Truths”
Mikey Madison, “Anora”
Demi Moore, “The Substance”
Almost there: Fernanda Torres, “I’m Still Here,” Nicole Kidman, “Babygirl,” Angelina Jolie, “Maria,” Pamela Anderson, “The Last Showgirl,” Saoirse Ronan, “The Outrun”
Lowdown: The last slot is between Jean-Baptiste and Torres. If the latter snags the nomination, it would be an incredible comeback after missing out on both SAG and BAFTA. Jean-Baptiste earned a BAFTA nomination and won three premiere critics’s groups honors, and it’s arguably one of the best performances of the decade by an actress or actor. That being said, “I’m Still Here” will likely earn an International Film nomination and maybe an Adapted Screenplay nod. “Hard Truths” seems to be Jean-Baptiste or bust. It’s a flip ’em, but we can’t give up on Marianne.
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Adrien Brody, “The Brutalist”
Timothee Chalamet, “A Complete Unknown”
Daniel Craig, “Queer”
Colman Domingo, “Sing Sing”
Ralph Fiennes, “Conclave”
Almost there: Sebastian Stan, “The Apprentice” (or in a real surprise, “A Different Man”), Jesse Eisenberg, “A Real Pain,” Hugh Grant, “Heretic”
Lowdown: This has been another weak Best Actor class, but Craig missing out on a BAFTA nomination (his countrymen, no less) was an eyebrow-raiser. We still think he’ll make it over Stan, but it’s closer than many might have suspected even two months ago.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Jamie Lee Curtis, “The Last Showgirl”
Ariana Grande, “Wicked”
Felicity Jones, “The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini, “Conclave”
Zoe Saldana, “Emilia Pérez”
Almost there: Monica Barbaro, “A Complete Unknown,” Margaret Qualley, “The Substance,” Aujanue Ellis-Taylor, “Nickel Boys”
Lowdown: The final nomination is likely between Barbaro or Curtis. Jamie Lee is proving that the money some studios spend on Colleen Camp is a waste. There is no other AMPAS member with more social media influence and connections right now than Curtis (O.K., maybe Diane Warren). We think that puts her over the top. (It’s also genuinely a much better performance than her Oscar-winning turn in “Everything Everywhere All At Once”).
SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Yura Borisov, “Anora”
Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain”
Clarence Maclin, “Sing Sing”
Edward Norton, “A Complete Unknown”
Guy Pearce, “The Brutalist”
Almost there: Jeremy Strong, “The Apprentice,” Jonathan Bailey, “Wicked,” Denzel Washington, “Gladiator II,” Stanley Tucci, “Conclave”
Lowdown: The final slot likely comes down to Maclin or Strong. Gonna be close.
FILM EDITING
Sean Baker, “Anora”
Nick Emerson, “Conclave”
Dávid Jancsó, “The Brutalist”
Juliette Welfing, “Emilia Pérez”
Joe Walker, “Dune: Part Two”
Almost there: Andrew Buckland, “A Complete Unknown,” Marco Costa, “Challengers,” Myron Kerstein, “Wicked”
Lowdown: You want to know what movie is winning Best Picture? Look at this category. Historically, it’s insanely hard to win without landing an Editing nomination. Jancsó was snubbed by BAFTA, but we think he makes it with AMPAS. If not, a Buckland nomination could mean “A Complete Unknown” is an underdog contender to take it all.
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
“Flow”
“Kneecap”
“Emilia Pérez”
“I’m Still Here”
“The Seed of the Sacred Fig”
Almost there: “How To Make Millions Before Grandma Dies,” “Vermiglio,” “Santosh,” “The Girl with The Needle”
Lowdown: “How To Make Millions” could knock out either “Flow” or “Kneecap.” Don’t be surprised if it upsets. The other three are pretty safe.
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
“A Different Man”
“Beetlejuice Beetlejuice”
“The Substance”
“Nosferatu”
“Wicked”
Almost there: “Dune: Part Two,” “Emilia Perez,” “The Apprentice,” “Maria,” “Waltzing with Brando”
Lowdown: There were only five titles that made the shortlist. Maybe “Dune” makes it, but these five seem pretty likely.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Jarin Blaschke, “Nosferatu”
Lol Crawley, “The Brutalist”
Stephane Fontaine, “Conclave”
Greg Fraser, “Dune: Part Two”
Paul Guilhaume, “Emilia Pérez”
Almost there: Edward Lachman, “Maria,” Michal Dymek, “The Girl with the Needle,” Phedon Papamichael, “A Complete Unknown,” Alice Brooks, “Wicked”
Lowdown: As a friend who knows the cinematography world well remarked about this category, “this feels kind of chaotic.” That is referencing the ASC dropping seven nominees instead of the usual five while somehow still snubbing expected contenders such as Guilhaume. This year is so competitive that “The Substance” director of photography Benjamin Kracun is somehow a complete no-show this season.
COSTUME DESIGN
Jacqueline Duran, “Blitz”
Lisy Christi, “Conclave”
Linda Muir, “Nosferatu”
Arianne Phillips, “A Complete Unknown”
Paul Tazewell, “Wicked”
Almost there: Jacqueline West, “Dune: Part Two,” Emmanuelle Youchnovski, “The Substance,” Colleen Atwood, “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice,” David Crossman and Janty Yates, “Gladiator II,”
Lowdown: This category is potentially a question of which costume design legend will emerge for the fifth slot. Will Duran hold on after securing a BAFTA nom? Will West earn her sixth nod after landing one (with Bob Morgan) for the first “Dune”? Will four-time winner Atwood take her 13th nom for another Tim Burton collaboration? Could Youchnovski surprise against such titans? Ponder.
PRODUCTION DESIGN
Judy Becker and Patricia Cuccia, “The Brutalist”
Nathan Crowley and Lee Sandales, “Wicked”
Suzie Davies and Cynthia Sleiter, “Conclave”
Craig Lathrop, “Nosferatu”
Patrice Vermette and Shane Vieau, “Dune: Part Two”
Almost there: Emmanuelle Duplay, “Emilia Pérez,” Adam Stockhausen, “Blitz,” Stanislas Reydellet, “The Substance,” Arthur Max, “Gladiator II”
Lowdown: In theory, these five should be safe, but if “Dune: Part Two” underperforms overall, look for Duplay or Stockhausen to join their peers in another super-competitive year.
SOUND
“A Complete Unknown”
“Blitz”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Emilia Pérez”
“Wicked”
Almost there: “Gladiator II,” “The Wild Robot,” “Alien: Romulus,” “Deadpool & Wolverine,” “Joker: Folie à Deux””
Lowdown: Maybe “Blitz” doesn’t make it? But if not, who? The shortlist this year was…strange.
VISUAL EFFECTS
“Better Man”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Gladiator II”
“Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes”
“Wicked”
Almost there: “Alien: Romulus,” “Twisters,” “Civil War”
Lowdown: What’s so peculiar about Visual Effects is usually a “prestige-ish” movie is in the final five. That does not seem to be the case this year unless that slot is going to “Wicked.” And we’re predicting “Gladiator II” to make it after its BAFTA nom, but…really?
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE FILM
“Daughters”
“No Other Land”
“Porcelain War”
“Sugarcane”
“Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat”
Almost there: “Dahomey,” “Black Box Diaries,” “The Bibi Files,” “Union”
Lowdown: This category is more of a crap shoot than ever. It wouldn’t even be surprising if they somehow snubbed “No Other Land.”