After months of campaigning, the 95th Oscar nominations are here. And, in theory, with blockbusters such as “Top Gun: Maverick,” “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” (granted, a streaming blockbuster), and “Avatar: The Way of Water” in the mix for Best Picture nominations people should be excited. But are they? The online fanbase of “Everything Everywhere All At Once” certainly is, but is anyone else? Perhaps the nominations dropping will do the trick. Maybe.
READ MORE: “All Quiet on the Western Front” loudly dominates the 2023 BAFTA nominations [Complete List]
This is also one of the less settled Oscar years in quite some time. Sure, “The Banshees of Inisherin,” “Everything Everywhere,” “The Fablemans,” “Elvis” and “Top Gun: Maverick” will dominate the nomination tallies, but there are so many questions left to be answered. How much influence does Netflix have without a potential Best Picture winner in their coffers? Can they get someone like Adam Sandler across the finish line in a weak Best Actor race? Where will the international membership demonstrate its collective influence? Can there be two non-English language Best Picture nominees? Can another Palme d’Or winner make the cut? How many nominations can “Everything Everywhere” land without effectively spending on trade or outdoor ads? And can polarizing films such as “Babylon” and “The Whale” really crash the party?
Keeping all that in mind, here are some educated Academy Award nomination predictions for the 2023 season.
Please note: We do not predict or cover the short races during this portion of the season
Achievement in film editing
“All Quiet on the Western Front”“The Banshees of Inisherin”“Elvis”“Everything Everywhere All At Once”“Top Gun: Maverick”
Almost there: “Avatar: The Way of Water,” “The Fablemans,” “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”Lowdown: You know the drill. If you don’t have an Editing nomination it’s very hard to win Best Picture. If any of these five don’t make it, well, their chances are shot.
Achievement in makeup and hairstyling
“All Quiet on the Western Front”“The Batman”“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”“Elvis”“The Whale”
Almost there: “Babylon,” “Emancipation”Lowdown: Wondering if “Emancipation” can genuinely surprise here.
Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score)
“Avatar: The Way of Water”“Babylon”“The Fabelmans”“Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio”“Nope”
Almost there: “Everything Everywhere All At Once,” “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” “The Banshees of Inisherin”Lowdown: The idea that Justin Hurwitz is going to get nominated for ripping off his Oscar-winning “La La Land” score is truly insane.
Achievement in production design
“Babylon”“Elvis”“Everything Everywhere All At Once”“The Fablemans”“Top Gun: Maverick”
Almost there: “All Quiet on The Western Front,” “Avatar: The Way of Water,” “Nope,” “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”Lowdown: Super rare that this category is so wide open. At least three of these predictions could be wrong.
Achievement in sound
“All Quiet on the Western Front”“Avatar: The Way of Water”“The Batman”“Elvis”“Top Gun: Maverick”
Almost there: “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” “Everything Everywhere All At Once”Lowdown: Still trying to wrap my head around “Nope” not making the shortlist for this one.
Performance by an actor in a leading role
Austin Butler, “Elvis”Colin Farrell, “The Banshees of Inisherin”Brendan Fraser, “The Whale”Paul Mescal, “Aftersun”Bill Nighy, “Living”
Almost there: Tom Cruise, “Top Gun: Maverick,” Adam Sandler, “Hustle”Lowdown: We’re going with Mescal for the fifth slot, but Cruise or Sandler could easily make it.
Performance by an actor in a supporting role
Paul Dano, “The Fablemans”Brendan Gleeson, “The Banshees of Inisherin”Judd Hirsch, “The Fablemans”Ke Huy Quan, “Everything Everywhere All At Once”Barry Keoghan, “The Banshees of Inisherin”
Almost there: Ben Whishaw, “Women Talking,” Brad Pitt, “Babylon”Lowdown: Keoghan, Quan and Gleeson are locks. We feel confident with Dano. Hirsch is only there because we’re concerned “Women Talking,” and Whishaw, have fallen completely off AMPAS radar.
Performance by an actress in a leading role
Cate Blanchett, “TAR”Danielle Deadwyler, “Till”Michelle Yeoh, “Everything Everywhere All At Once”Andrea Riseborough, “To Leslie”Michelle Williams, “The Fablemans”
Almost there: Viola Davis, “The Woman King,” Ana de Armas, “Blonde”Lowdown: Should we believe this last-minute surge for Riseborough? Is it one of the biggest red herrings in Oscar campaigning over the past decade? It might be, but at the moment, why not! We believe! But if not, it’s going to absolutely be a case of a real campaign not gaining traction in time.
Performance by an actress in a supporting role
Angela Bassett, “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”Hong Chau, “The Whale”Kerry Condon, “The Banshees of Inisherin”Dolly De Leon, “Triangle of Sadness”Jamie Lee Curtis, “Everything Everywhere All At Once”
Almost there: Stephanie Hsu, “Everything Everywhere All At Once,” Janelle Monae, “Glass Onion”Lowdown: Hsu deserves to make it, but after the BAFTA snubs it might be too tough to overcome.
Animated Feature
“Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio”“Marcell the Shell with Shoes On”“My Father’s Dragon”“Puss in Boots: The Last Wish”“Turning Red”
Almost there: “Wendall and Wild,” “Strange World,” “The Bad Guys,” “Apollo 10 1/2”Lowdown: The question is the fifth selection. Is it the Netflix releases “My Father’s Dragon” and “Wendall and Wild” or something else?
Achievement in cinematography
“All Quiet on the Western Front”“The Batman”“Elvis”“Empire of Light”“Top Gun: Maverick”
Almost there: “All Quiet on the Western Front,” “Babylon,” “The Fabelmans”Lowdown: We were gonna just go with the ASC selections but “All Quiet on the Western Front” knocking “Bardo” out at the BAFTAs made us reconsider.