The question regarding who will win the 2024 Best Supporting Actor trophy won’t be known for months. It’s a tight race and there are already four “almost” guaranteed nominees: Robert Downey, Jr. (“Oppenheimer”), Robert De Niro (“Killers of the Flower Moon”), Ryan Gosling (“Barbie”) and Mark Ruffalo (“Poor Things”). Like the Best Director campaign, that likely leaves just one open slot.
READ MORE: “Oppenheimer” and “Poor Things” are your 2024 Best Picture frontrunners…for now
Fighting for fifth is 2023 Best Actor nominee Paul Mescal (“All of Us Strangers”), four-time nominee Willam Dafoe (“Poor Things”), Tom Hardy (“The Bikeriders“), and a potential double Best Supporting and Best Actor player this year, Colman Domingo (“The Color Purple”). Other potential players include Jesse Plemmons (“Killers of the Flower Moon”), John Margo (“Past Lives”), Sterling K. Brown (“American Fiction”), Matt Damon (“Oppenheimer”), and Jacob Elrodi (for either “Saltburn” or “Priscilla”).
Working in Dafoe and Plemmons favor is that this category has recently trended towards two nominees from the same film. Since 2018 five out of six Oscars have featured the double bill with “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” “The Irisman,” “Judas and the Black Messiah,” “The Power of the Dog,” and “The Banshees of Inisherin” all earning multiple noms. As with every acting category this year, however, the inability of contenders to campaign due to the ongoing SAG strike will absolutely affect this year’s nominee slate. If the strike can be resolved by December, a lot of last minute appearances and events could flip the battle for the fifth slot. Maybe. [Posted Oct. 3]
LIKELY
Robert Downey, Jr., “Oppenheimer”
Robert De Niro, “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Ryan Gosling, “Barbie”
Mark Ruffalo, “Poor Things”
ALMOST THERE
Paul Mescal, “All of Us Strangers”
Colman Domingo, “The Color Purple”
Willem Dafoe, “Poor Things”
Tom Hardy, “The Bikeriders”
POSSIBLE
Jesse Plemmons, “Killers of the Flower Moon”
John Magaro, “Past Lives”
Sterling K. Brown, “American Fiction”
Matt Damon, “Oppenheimer”
Jacob Elordi, “Saltburn”
Jacob Elordi, “Priscilla”
LONGSHOTS
Charles Melton, “May December”
Glenn Howerton, “Blackberry”
Chris Messina, “Air”
Ben Affleck, “Air”
Jason Bateman, “Air”