In theory, we owe the world another edition of the Contender Countdown. A long-awaited update on the state of the Best Picture race. Except, here’s the thing, there’s really nothing to update. Yes, it’s true. We’ve entered yet another Oscar season where there is little drama about who is taking the biggest awards crown of them all. Oh, and it’s “Oppenheimer.” I mean, maybe “Poor Things” shocks, but, no, no. It’s “Oppenheimer.” There’s no debate. It’s happening. It’s already written in the history books. Don’t try and convince yourself otherwise. That being said, there are some categories with genuine suspense this season.
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(There are some, but not a lot. We refuse to start a needless over-speculation discourse over races that are not close with people who are fishing for upsets just for clicks.)
And yet, when the BAFTA Awards conclude on Sunday there will be a new cycle of updated predictions in a number of categories. Does that mean upsets are in store here and there? Sure. Or, maybe just take a breather and wait till the SAG Awards wrap up next Saturday night and the other guild honors get to have their say. It may not matter much anyway. There are very few questions surrounding this year’s winners (although we’re about to consider a few) and, frankly, the biggest question is really whether ABC can convince Taylor Swift to fly from her final Singapore show on March 9 straight back to LA to make the ceremony. No, she’s not up for any awards, but Bob Iger did pay $75 million just for the streaming rights to “The Eras Tour” movie, right? The Oscars and ABC need that rating boost the Grammys and Super Bowl got.
Keeping all that in mind, tempering expectations across the board, and in the words of Melissa Leo, “consider this”…
Who is winning International Film?
In theory, Jonathan Glazer’s Cannes-winning, A24 release, “The Zone of Interest” should be the frontrunner in this category. And we’re not just saying that because it was both The Playlist and this critic’s top film of 2023. The movie has also grossed a solid $6 million in the U.S. and another $6.4 million overseas. Any other year that might be enough. That being said, J.A. Bayona’s “Society of the Snow” has been a monster on Netflix even landing in Nielsen’s top 10 movies on streaming chart in the United States (for the week of Jan. 8-14 it ranked #2 with over 618 million hours) and dominating the streamings global charts for over a month. “Society” also just won 12 Goya Awards (the Spanish equivalent of the Academy Award), which is no small feat. Netflix also has their billboard network all over Los Angeles partially filled with “Society” ads (the rest are for “Maestro”). A24 isn’t even trying to play the ad game with Netflix this time around. It’s hoping appreciation for the film (one of the best of the decade) and the fact it’s already a Best Picture nominee will pull it through. No matter what happens at BAFTA, this is going to be a close one on Oscar night.
Is Best Actress Emma or Lily or…Sandra?
Dear Oscar fans on social media, newsflash: this category may not go the way you think it will. “Killers of the Flower Moon” star Lily Gladstone has been the darling of critics since Cannes, but she did not sweep the year-end awards. “Poor Things” star (and producer) Emma Stone won the non-gender Best Lead Performance from the LA Film Critics and hasn’t technically lost an “awards show” honor to Gladstone yet (they have been in different categories). “Anatomy of a Fall’s” Sandra Huller also won Best Lead Performance from the LA Film Critics (two actors are recognized), Best Actress at the European Film Awards, and the National Society of Film Critics Best Actress honor, among others. And while “Poor Things” has done very well in the U.S., did you know both films are massive in Europe? Do you know where most of the International members of the Academy live? Hint: it’s across the Atlantic. And while Gladstone was snubbed by BAFTA (absolutely not a good sign), either Stone or Huller are likely to win on Sunday. That gives someone a head start before Gladstone re-enters the race at the SAG Awards. That being said, we have yet to meet an Academy member who is voting for Gladstone. There are likely many, perhaps thousands who will, but just anecdotally, something to note. For the moment.
Will Paul Giamatti give In-n-Out another post-awards show moment?
Can “Oppenheimer’s” Cillian Murphy win Best Actor? Sure. Will he? Well, maybe. Murphy likely has BAFTA in the bag, but “The Holdovers’” Paul Giamatti could easily take SAG a week later. And Giamatti’s “In-N-Out” moment after winning the Golden Globe is so engrained in the industry’s consciousness that it was part of Ryan Gosling’s bit in an extended Oscars promo with Jimmy Kimmel. Universal may also want to limit Murphy on the red carpet for the next few weeks because ripping the promotional machine that allows the movies you make to make money and then allows studios and financiers to hire you for more work is not necessarily ideal. It might play to your fellow actors, but probably not to many other members of the Academy. And, it goes without saying, that the Academy loves “The Holdovers.” Rewarding Da’Vine Joy Randolph (the lock of all locks) may simply not be enough. Could Giamatti be a much more deserving version of last year’s Jamie Lee Curtis run? Ponder.
Is there an upset browning in the Adapted Screenplay race?
The formula to winning Best Picture has many permutations, but a constant over the last few decades is to take one of the two screenwriting Oscars. In fact, “Nomadland,” “The Shape of Water,” “Million Dollar Baby,” “Chicago” and “Gladiator” are the only Best Picture winners to not pull that feat off this century (that’s 23 Oscar ceremonies so far). So, in theory, Christopher Nolan’s first-person screenplay for “Oppenheimer” should take the Adapted category. And while it still might, most voters know Nolan is going to win for Director. They may decide that’s enough to reward someone else in this category. And no, we don’t think that means “Barbie’s” Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach are taking it instead. That benefactor would likely be Cord Jefferson for “American Fiction.” The Academy loves the movie (five nominations) partially because it speaks about the creative process. The story may be set mostly in the world of publishing, but those creative frustrations are almost universal. If Jefferson takes BAFTA it’s over (and even if he doesn’t, don’t discount his chances).
Can “Godzilla: Minus One” give the monster his long overdue Oscar?
Since the first “Godzilla” movie debuted in 1956 the franchise, in all its incarnations, has never earned an Academy Award nomination. Even Gareth Edwards‘ well-received and visually stunning 2014 version was snubbed by the Visual Effects branch. That changed with “Godzilla: Minus One” which landed a long sought VFX nomination in January. Not only was the Japanese language movie a box office hit in the U.S. earning $56 million, but the filmmakers have been the hit of the circuit as they bring their miniature Godzillas everywhere. And when none other than Steven Spielberg is telling everyone he saw your movie three times? And seeing you out at the Oscar Luncheon? Well, it looks like the big green monster might finally take that trophy back home.
Current predictions before Sunday’s BAFTA Awards, just for kicks:
Best Picture
Winner: “Oppenheimer”
If not, then: “Poor Things”
Best Director
Winner: Christopher Nolan, “Oppenheimer”
Best Actor
Winner: Paul Giamatti, “The Holdovers”
If not, then: Cillian Murphy, “Oppenheimer”
Best Actress
Winner: Emma Stone, “Poor Things”
If not, then: Lily Gladstone, “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Supporting Actor
Winner: Robert Downey, Jr., “Oppenheimer”
If not, then: Mark Ruffalo, “Poor Things” or…maybe…Ryan Gosling, “Barbie”
Supporting Actress
Winner: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, “The Holdovers”
Original Screenplay:
Winner: Justine Triet, “Anatomy of a Fall”
If not, then: David Hemingson, “The Holdovers”
Adapted Screenplay
Winner: Cord Jefferson, “American Fiction”
If not, then: Christopher Nolan, “Oppenheimer”
Original Score
Winner: Ludwig Göransson, “Oppenheimer”
Original Song
Winner: “What Was I Made For?”
If not, then: “I’m Just Ken”
Costumes
Winner: Jacqueline Durran, “Barbie”
If not, then: Holly Waddington, “Poor Things”
Production Design
Winner: James Price and Shona Heath, “Poor Things”
If not, then: Sarah Greenwood, “Barbie”
Editing
Winner: Jennifer Lame, “Oppenheimer”
If not, then: Laurent Sénéchal, “Anatomy of a Fall”
Hair and Makeup
Winner: Kazu Hiro, Kay Georgiou and Lori McCoy-Bell, “Maestro”
If not, then: Nadia Stacey, Mark Coulier, and Josh Weston, “Poor Things”
Animated Feature
Winner: “The Boy and the Heron”
If not, then: “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
Documentary
Winner: “20 Days in Mariupol”
If not, then: “The Eternal Memory”