The Christmas action comedy film Red One, which stars Dwayne Johnson as Callum Drift, a North Pole security expert tasked with finding a kidnapped Santa Claus on Christmas Eve, was originally slated to be released worldwide by Amazon MGM Studios through Amazon’s Prime Video streaming service, until Amazon decided to make Red One its third major theatrical release of 2024, following The Beekeeper and Challengers.

In its opening weekend of release, Red One finished first at the domestic box office with a gross of approximately $32.1 million. While the $32.1 million opening for the film, which has a worldwide gross of over $100 million, would ordinarily be considered respectable for an original IP Christmas release, the opening was disastrous relative to the film’s whopping $250 million production cost.

Red One, which also had a $100 million marketing cost, has become the most expensive example of how streaming giants like Amazon have completely upended traditional Hollywood business models, including the basic definition of success. If Joker: Folie à Deux, which was distributed by Warner Bros. and had a $37.6 million domestic opening against a $200 million production cost, is rightly considered to be a gigantic flop, why did Apple’s similarly-budgeted 2023 epic Killers of the Flower Moon avoid this stigma?

While the $32.1 million opening for Red One would have caused panic for a traditional Hollywood studio, the box-office performance of the film represents a proverbial icing-on-the-cake benefit for the mighty Amazon, which has the virtually unparalleled ability to absorb $250 million as if it was an accounting error while patiently waiting for Red One to hopefully become an enduring Christmas classic.

‘Red One’ Had a Chilly Box-Office Debut
Release Date November 15, 2024 Cast Dwayne Johnson , Chris Evans , J.K. Simmons , Lucy Liu , Kiernan Shipka , Bonnie Hunt , Kristofer Hivju , Nick Kroll , Wesley Kimmel , Mary Elizabeth Ellis , Wyatt Hunt , Lanz Duffy , Marc Evan Jackson , Ashleigh Domangue , Cody Easterbrook , Jon Rudnitsky , Morla Gorrondona , Jenna Kanell , Rod Maxwell , Fedor Steer , Octavia Grace , Matthew Zuk , Cora Kass , Ahmad Ghafouri , Jeff Chase Runtime 123 Minutes Expand

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With a combined $350 million marketing and production cost, Red One needs to gross between $700 million and $800 million at the worldwide box office just to reach a break-even point for its theatrical run. At its current pace, Red One will need a true Christmas miracle to surpass the $400 million mark at the worldwide box office, especially since Red One is set to be overwhelmed by the simultaneous advance of the blockbuster films Gladiator II and Wicked.

One point of solace is that while Red One presently holds a dreary 32% Rotten Tomatoes rating, this has been offset by a 90% Rotten Tomatoes audience score. Moreover, the film may be boosted at the holiday box office by the continual presence of Dwayne Johnson, who is also the star of Moana 2, which, after Red One, is set to become Johnson’s second consecutive theatrical release to debut in the top spot at the domestic box office.

Related ‘Red One’ Ending, Explained: How Does Gryla’s Plan Turn Out? Despite being thoroughly action-packed, Amazon MGM Studio’s newest Christmas film ends on a wholesome note.

While Red One seems poised to become a box-office disaster in its theatrical life, the best chance for the film to achieve profitability is to eventually become a beloved holiday title that has resonated with audiences for decades. However, as the box-office performance of the PG-13-rated Red One has undoubtedly been limited by its action-oriented approach, it will be interesting to see if this helps or hurts the film’s ability to stand the test of time, which will further depend on how much the film’s reach extends beyond Prime Video.

Dwayne Johnson’s Movies Have Gotten Way Too Expensive

For Dwayne Johnson, Red One marks his fourth feature starring vehicle to cost in excess of $200 million, following Black Adam, Jungle Cruise, and the 2021 Netflix action comedy film Red Notice. Black Adam and Jungle Cruise were box-office failures, and while Red Notice became one of Netflix’s most popular titles, Netflix has yet to confirm the production of a Red Notice sequel despite a flood of sequel development announcements over the past two years.

The fact that Red One was produced by Amazon MGM Studios instead of a traditional Hollywood studio is a testament to how Johnson, who was reportedly paid $50 million to star in Red One, has priced himself out of the conventional studio system, in which Johnson, who also co-produced the Christmas film, hasn’t had a box-office hit, relative to cost, since the 2019 release of Jumanji: The Next Level. The box-office failure has renewed questions about Johnson’s box-office drawing power, especially within the rarefied $200 million production model, a number that seems greatly inflated for a Santa Claus-related film like Red One, which looks like it cost closer to $100 million.

Unless Johnson shows a willingness to trim the budgets of his films, and unless his films demonstrate a much greater level of theatrical profitability, it seems increasingly likely that he will continue to operate within the streaming space, if for no other reason than that the deep-pocketed Amazon and Netflix are seemingly the only players to be daring and rich enough to consistently get into business with Johnson.

Amazon Doesn’t Need ‘Red One’ to Be a Box-Office Success

Because Red One was originally made for streaming, any box-office revenue that the film generates is a bonus for Amazon and entirely attributable to a marketing campaign for the film’s streaming debut. Given that a theatrical release typically greatly benefits a film’s streaming performance, if Red One covers its $100 million marketing cost at the box office, this will be a victory for Amazon, which will be able to launch the film on Prime Video with a massive prepaid marketing campaign behind it. For this purpose, the film’s excellent 90% Rotten Tomatoes audience score is a more important statistic than its current box office total.

Of course, even titanic companies like Amazon don’t like losing money, as seen with Apple’s recent streamlining of its film production division. Since streaming revenue and viewership numbers aren’t nearly as readily available as box-office totals, the clearest measure of whether Amazon regards Red One as a success will be if Amazon decides to produce a sequel or any other $250 million Dwayne Johnson film in the future. Red One is in theaters now.