Most people have a lot on their plate. With all the possible things to worry about, sweating over the box office grosses and budgets of multi-million-dollar-earning movies should not be one of them. Yet, as time goes on, audiences have taken a greater interest in reading about and commenting on the financial performance of movies, which are something we ought to interpret as pieces of art rather than corporate commodities. The most fraught exercise during these sessions of box office hand-wringing is in the opening weekend projection game, which is routinely inaccurate, best exemplified by the overperformance of A Minecraft Movie. Opening weekend projections are overrated, and the trades aren’t as smart as they think.
Opening Weekend Box Office Projections Hamper a Film’s Success

Image via Warner Bros.

There was a time when the opening weekend was barely a concept. Even decades after Jaws invented the modern summer blockbuster, we never expected movies to flood the multiplexes and earn 50% of their entire gross within the first weekend. With the advent of the franchise boom in the 21st century, opening weekends determined which films would become culturally seismic events and which movies would be punch lines for the trades. Marvel and Star Wars movies of the last decade effortlessly grossed upwards of $100 million in their opening weekends, and the ripple effects of this unprecedented run led to unreasonable expectations of major franchise releases, considering that today’s audiences do not automatically pack theaters in droves for the average MCU entry.

Granted, the theatrical experience is an expedited process these days. Movies earn their grosses more quickly, and they enter VOD and home release within three (and sometimes two) weeks of theatrical release. Legging it out at the box office after an underwhelming opening weekend is less likely, but don’t say that to recent movies like Elemental, The Fall Guy, and IF, which were labeled as “flops” after a paltry opening weekend, but eventually legged it out over time to become a solid worldwide hit. The media is quick to pronounce a movie “dead” at the box office after a low opener, failing to recognize that not everyone, particularly older audiences and people with young kids, can rush out to theaters on the first weekend.
Opening Weekend Projections Failed To Predict the Popularity of ‘Minecraft’ and ‘Sinners’

A 2024 New York Times article outlines that box office tracking has a foolproof model to diagnose what will hit and what will flop, but because movies can’t be commodified like a factory product, the science becomes blatantly inexact. If there’s any assurance in the exhausting game of opening weekend projections and subsequent panic, it’s that it reminds everyone that movies cannot be reduced to a formula. No one, not the studios or the press, can perfectly track what will resonate with audiences. Being major comic book properties, The Flash and Joker: Folie à Deux seemed like surefire hits, but they’re now synonymous with superhero fatigue. Movies with tepid expectations in 2024, A Quiet Place: Day One and Twisters, far exceeded their initial projections, despite having signature stars and a pre-established brand name. Projections by the trades implicitly set the narrative for the films they report on. Because they overperformed, Quiet Place and Twisters were viewed as triumphant, sleeper hits, while disappointing openers in The Fall Guy and Furiosa (which had unfairly high projections) were viewed as misfires.
With these miscalculations, the trades show their obliviousness and biases regarding the demographics they are supposed to track. A Minecraft Movie is heading towards a billion-dollar total, boosted by its $157 million opening weekend, which nearly doubled its projection. Anyone raising a teenager would know that A Minecraft Movie’s colossal opening weekend was unsurprising, as the video game is one of the most influential games in recent memory. For younger audiences, video game adaptations like Minecraft and Five Nights at Freddy’s (which also shattered its low projections) are in vogue, but the trackers haven’t caught up to this reality.

Related

Ryan Coogler’s ‘Sinners’ Isn’t Just a Great Horror Movie — It’s a Tribute to the Genre-Blending Mastery of John Carpenter

The Master of Horror would be proud.

Although its official tracking was close to its $45 million opener, the industry response to Sinners’ first weekend was something of a pleasant surprise. Ryan Coogler and Michael B. Jordan’s star power was heavily supported by the franchise backing of Rocky and Black Panther, but the passionate following surrounding their previous collaborations as stand-alone expressions served as clear evidence that their original vampire-hunting horror-thriller would be viable. Along with the tepid tracking of One of Them Days, one of the genuine success stories of a rocky 2025, Hollywood and the trades consistently underestimate Black audiences.
Opening weekend projections have a limited understanding of measuring audience interest, and even when they are accurate, they don’t account for word-of-mouth and legs at the box office. We use the theatricality surrounding opening weekend projections to celebrate cinema being “back” or as a chance to dump on self-indulgent films, but we’re a healthier film culture without them dominating the discourse.

A Minecraft Movie

Release Date

April 4, 2025

Runtime

101 minutes

Director

Jared Hess

Writers

Chris Galletta, Gavin James, Hubbel Palmer, Neil Widener, Allison Schroeder, Chris Bowman

Producers

Jason Momoa, Jill Messick, Mary Parent, Roy Lee, Todd Hallowell, Cale Boyter, Jon Berg, Jon Spaihts, Brian Andrew Mendoza, Vu Bui, Lydia Winters