It’s been quite a while since we’ve written about the Best Picture race. There’s a reason for that. Frankly, not much has changed. Sure, a few more movies hit theaters and critics’ groups had their say, but there have been no Oscar earthquakes. Not really. Not even a major tremor. And the more the field has played out it sort of feels like it’s going to come down to an inevitable clash of the titans: “Oppenheimer” vs. “Barbie.”
Now before, you dismiss the latter’s chances of winning, let’s talk it out.
READ MORE: “American Fiction,” “May December” and “Past Lives” top 2024 Independent Spirit Awards Nominations
Consider Oscar night. Jimmy Kimmel has delivered another fine but probably forgettable monologue. Supporting Actor is up first and Robert Downey, Jr. takes it for “Oppenheimer.” Danielle Brooks or Da’Vine Joy Randolph win Supporting Actress for “The Color Purple” and “The Holdovers” respectively. And then the below-the-line honors begin to unfurl. “Oppenheimer” takes Cinematography and Sound. “Barbie” wins or splits Costumes and Production Design with “Poor Things.” Original Score goes to “Oppenheimer.” Original Song goes to “Barbie.” “Oppenheimer” takes Editing. Make-Up and Hairstyling go to “Maestro” or “Poor Things.” And then Christopher Nolan surprises in Adapted Screenplay while Gerta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach win Original Screenplay (Update: In a surprising decision, the Writer’s Branch deemed “Barbie” qualifies for the Adapted Screenplay category and not Original Screenplay, as it has been campaigning and the WGA has qualified it, just five days before voting begins).
Neither film win Best Actor (watch out for Paul Giamatti) or Best Actress (likely “Killer of the Flower Moon’s” Lily Gladstone) but Nolan takes Director. And then…? Is “Barbie” the consensus winner? Is “Oppenheimer” a slam dunk? Place your bets on the win, but doesn’t that sound like how the show will play out? Exciting moment for both films with a massive tally of nominations?
Ponder it. Sleep on it. Maybe it’s inevitable. Maybe it’s an ABC executive’s pipe dream. One thing we know is the only thing that has truly changed in the Best Picture race is whether the 10 nominees are locked or not. Much to this writer’s surprise, “The Color Purple” earned a better critical reception than expected and had a banner Christmas box office. But, it’s come a bit down to earth since then. Other movies such as “All of Us Strangers” and “May December” have very passionate followings. The question is whether they can really knock “American Fiction,” “Past Lives” or “The Zone of Interest” out of the mix.
The Golden Globes will happen. The Critics Choice Awards will happen. And yet, they are merely public relations reminders of who is in the race for AMPAS members to scan on social media or in a breaking news alert. For some reason, logic does not compute with members of the mainstream press who continue to forget those group’s choices don’t reflect the tendencies of people actually in the industry let alone The Academy. But those wins look pretty on an ad, I guess.
Obviously, after the nominations are announced on January 23, things change. The PGA, DGA, SAG and BAFTA, all groups with legitimate Academy crossover will have their say. And then, maybe then, there could be signs a surprise is on the horizon. Or maybe it will just all come down to “Barbenheimer.” Which, frankly, wouldn’t be a bad thing considering.
Keeping that in mind, an updated Contender Countdown.
January 3
1 “Oppenheimer”
Tik tok, tik tok. Will the bomb go off?
2 “Barbie”
To say Warner Bros and their awards consultant have pushed the pedal to the medal with this one is an understatement. Anyone who can get Ryan Gosling to do multiple industry Q&As deserves some sort of medal.
3 “Killers of the Flower Moon”
In theory it could win…maybe? Apple is certainly giving it everything they’ve got.
4 “Poor Things”
Either BAFTA will give it a lift or it’s an Emma Stone, Willem Dafoe (or Mark Ruffalo), Tony McNamara, and below-the-line play.
5 “The Holdovers”
The only movie in the top 10 that no one seems to have a negative thing to say about. Huh.
6 “Anatomy of a Fall”
The nominations will be the win. And perhaps rubbing them all in the French International Film committee’s faces (they chose “The Taste of Things” to represent France instead).
7 “The Zone of Interest”
That LA Film Critics Best Film win might have just helped it get across the finish line.
8 “Past Lives”
Should have a passionate enough fanbase to make the cut. A PGA Award nomination would certainly make A24 rest easier.
9 “Maestro”
Probably safe. Netflix will do whatever is necessary to make sure it makes the 10.
10 “American Fiction”
Cord Jefferson is getting an Adapted Screenplay nomination. Jeffrey Wright has a shot at a Best Actor nom. Best Picture? It’s in…for now.
11 “All of Us Strangers”
Still this close to making the cut. BAFTA longlist may tell the tale.
12 “The Color Purple”
I mean, anything is possible. Can Oprah will this into happening all by herself?
13 “May December”
Netflix isn’t giving up on a Best Picture play for this one. Maybe making sure Natalie Portman gets nominated is the smarter bet.
14 “The Iron Claw”
A genuine tearjerker that has done very well in theaters. But if Netflix couldn’t land three nominees in one year, can A24?
15 “Society of The Snow”
If Netflix released this on the streaming service in September – like “All Quiet on the Western Front” last year – things might have been different.
16 “Origin”
Never thought an Ava DuVernay movie could get lost in awards season. Surprise, surprise.
17 “Air”
This movie needed Ben Affleck and Matt Damon to be super passionate about campaigning. Haven’t really seen it.
18 “Saltburn”
Having a pop culture moment so, technically, it’s not dead yet. A Best Picture nomination is a long shot but could Rosamund Pike sneak into Supporting Actress?
So long, farewell: “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse,” “Ferrari,” “The Taste of Things,” “Napoleon,” “Dumb Money,” “Priscilla”