Summary

The Equalizer 3 is expected to earn between $28 million and $30 million in its opening three days, which falls short of the previous two films. The Equalizer earned $34 million during its opening weekend and The Equalizer 2 earned $36 million, meaning the third film isn’t too far behind. Due to the consistent quality of the franchise, the lower box office projections are likely due to Washington not being able to promote the film because of the SAG-AFTRA strike and changed audience behaviors due to the pandemic.

The Equalizer 3’s opening weekend box office projections are now in, and the new film is expected to fall short of the previous two movies. Directed once again by Antoine Fuqua, The Equalizer 3 sees Denzel Washington return as former government assassin Robert McCall for one last outing. The new film sees McCall living in Italy and enjoying a new life when he finds himself forced to face off against the mafia to protect people he cares about.

Now, ahead of The Equalizer 3’s release date later this week, Variety reports that the upcoming sequel is expected to earn between $28 million and $30 million during its Friday to Sunday window, with its four-day holiday projections between $33 million and $40 million. The three-day projections, if accurate, will see the film fall short of The Equalizer’s $34 million and The Equalizer 2’s $36 million.

Why The Equalizer 3’s Box Office Projections Are Lower

While some franchises see increasing audience interest and box office returns as the movies go on, as has been the case with John Wick, others see interest slowly fall off over time. The closest comparable franchise to Antoine Fuqua’s Equalizer trilogy is Taken. Both franchises have turned aging movie stars into unlikely action heroes, with Taken essentially coming to define the last decade of Liam Neeson’s career.

With each new Taken movie, both critics’ reviews and box office performance got worse. The Equalizer movies, however, have been fairly consistent with critics, with The Equalizer 3’s reviews largely falling in line with its predecessors. Plus, the second film in the series actually outperformed the first financially (by about $1 million). This suggests that it’s not a question of quality that’s driving the upcoming film’s lower projections, but other factors.

Crucially, Washington is unable to promote the movie due to the ongoing SAG-AFTRA strike. The lack of movie star promotion can certainly result in lower box office returns, and this could be the case for The Equalizer 3. Also, however, following the changing of audience behaviors due to the pandemic, the upcoming film is perhaps one that moviegoers have been trained to seek out on streaming platforms. That being said, The Equalizer 3’s opening weekend projections aren’t too much lower than its predecessors, and the film will likely still do solid business overall.

Source: Variety