It’s been a little over 48 hours since the Oscar nominations have been announced and we’re sort of wondering, is anyone outside of the nominees themselves actually excited about this year’s ceremony? Sure, hardcore fans of “Everything Everywhere All At Once” are thrilled the critically acclaimed indie hit is on the cusp of winning Best Picture (we’ll get to that in a minute), but the buzz overall seems, tepid? Maybe it was because everyone was still getting vaxed and semi-stuck at home in 2021, but even the “Nomadland”/“Mank”/“Promising Young Woman”/“Minari” year had more heat? I mean, how is that possible?
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Granted, in the Elon Musk era the current Twitter algorithm is so screwy it’s hard to tell what is even going on in the world anymore. That being said, the Oscars didn’t appear to dominate the social media conversation on nomination day as it has in the past. Obviously, it would have helped if nominees such as Tom Cruise, Rihanna, and Lady Gaga chimed in (the latter eventually posted something on Instagram the next day). Still, with “Avatar: The Way of Water” and “Top Gun: Maverick” earning Best Picture nominations the reaction should have been a bit more impactful. Maybe things were crazy on Tik Tok, but Film Twitter seemed to care only so much. So, yeah, maybe ABC will regret not landing a more exciting host than Jimmy Kimmel for this year’s show (granted, it’s unclear how long the list of candidates who turned it down actually was) and maybe a public scolding is necessary to the music branch for snubbing Taylor Swift for Original Song (and as someone who isn’t a fan, it pains me to say she was deserving of a nod and certainly more than Diane Warren).
But yeah, hope that marketing campaign starts soon…
In terms of the awards itself, we’ve got some very tight and interesting races to consider. Lady Gaga vs. Rihanna vs. the “RRR” sensation in Original Song. Austin Butler vs. Colin Farrell vs. Brendan Frasier for Best Actor. Cate Blanchett vs. Michelle Yeoh in Best Actress. And, of course, Best Picture.
In theory, the Academy’s top prize is “Everything Everywhere’s” to loose. It leads all films with 11 nominations and like “TAR” and “The Banshees of Inisherin” landed all the key nominations you need to statistically to win (Directing, Editing, Screenwriting and at least one Acting nod). And while awards season trends are meant to be broken (see “CODA” last year), the fact only four films with the most overall nominations have won since 2010 has to be slightly disconcerting (and two of those films were tied for the lead, so only two outright). And winning Best Picture is only partially about first place votes from AMPAS members, anyways. The preferential ballot matters and whoever tallies the most second and third place votes likely pushes to the top (granted, AMPAS does not release vote totals, so this is an industry statistical assumption).
Over the next few weeks a number of preliminary honors will give us some hints about who will take the crown. The excitement will begin on Feb. 18 with the DGA Awards where “Everything Everywhere’s” The Daniels and “The Fablemans’” Steven Spielberg are likely vying for the top prize. The following day, Feb. 19, the assumption is that “Banshees” will win Best Film at the BAFTA Awards although “TAR” could surprise (if “Everything Everywhere” wins? there may be no race to speak of). On Feb 25, the PGA Awards will hand out their top film honor. Considering the makeup of that organization, “Top Gun: Maverick,” “The Fablemans” and, maybe, “Everything Everywhere” have a shot. The following day, Feb. 26, the actors will have their say and the SAG Ensemble statue will likely go to “Everything Everywhere” with “Banshees” and “The Fablemans” also be in the mix.
So, keep your ear to the ground because with just six weeks left until final voting ends there is a lot of room for twists and turns ahead.
Maybe.
January 26, 2023
1 “Everything Everywhere All At Once”
The frontrunner…but…
2 “The Banshees of Inisherin”
BAFTA feels like a given, but if it surprises at SAG or PGA, watch out.
3 “The Fablemans”
Even without an editng nod it has a better chance to win than you might think but needs that DGA and/or PGA love to really come through.
4 “TAR”
Should Cate campaign or not? Is she even able to? Does she care about actually winning no. 3? Could Todd Field surprise in Director or Original Screenplay? Ponder.
5 “Top Gun: Maverick”
Some Oscar veterans still think it has a shot to win it all. We’re open to the idea but still need to be convinced.
6 “Elvis”
Can Austin Butler take down Colin Farrell or Brendan Fraser? Not sure the permanent Elvis voice is helping.
7 “All Quiet on the Western Front”
Likely the International Film winner although we’re rooting for “Close” to pull an upset.
8 “Triangle of Sadness”
We’ll always have the Palme.
9 “Women Talking”
If it somehow wins the SAG Awards ensemble trophy it jumps up the list.
10 “Avatar: The Way of Water”
I mean, it joins a very elite group of sequels to earn a Best Picture nod. Beyond that, it’s time to grab that VFX trophy and get working on finishing the third installment.
The 95th Academy Awards will take place on March 12 and air live on ABC at 5 PM PT