In hindsight, it might not seem like it, but the 2024 Oscar season has been highly competitive on many fronts. First carried by the directors during the WGA and SAG strikes, the race got a November boost when the latter came to an end and the actors were free to promote to their heart’s content. And while those work stoppages sadly affected several potential awards players, in the long run, it was probably always going to come down to “Oppenheimer,” “Barbie,” “Killers of the Flower Moon,” “Poor Things,” and “The Holdovers.”
READ MORE: “Poor Things,” “The Last of Us” and “The Bear” score 2024 PGA Awards nominations
The 2024 BAFTA Awards nominations dropped on Thursday and they certainly made us reconsider some picks. So, without further delay, some nomination predictions for you to dissect before Oscar unveils their honorees on Tuesday.
Performance by an actor in a leading role
Bradley Cooper, “Maestro”
Colman Domingo, “Rustin”
Cillian Murphy, “Oppenheimer”
Paul Giamatti, “The Holdovers”
Jeffrey Wright, “American Fiction”
Almost there: Leonardo DiCaprio, “Killers of the Flower Moon,” Barry Keoghan, Andrew Scott, “All of Us Strangers”
Lowdown: DiCaprio was snubbed by both SAG and BAFTA. Not an outcome you would have expected after “Killers’” Cannes premiere last May. Domingo campaigned like crazy and while the movie itself isn’t good, he’s generated enough love to make the cut. Also, this may be Giamatti’s to loose.
Performance by an actor in a supporting role
Sterling K. Brown, “American Fiction”
Robert De Niro, “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Robert Downey, Jr, “Oppenheimer”
Ryan Gosling, “Barbie”
Willem Dafoe, “Poor Things”
Almost there: Mark Ruffalo, “Poor Things,” Charles Melton, “May December,” Paul Mescal, “All of Us Strangers”
Lowdown: Maybe Melton surprises, but after BAFTA and SAG snubs it would be a “wow.”
Performance by an actress in a supporting role
Emily Blunt, “Oppenheimer”
Danielle Brooks, “The Color Purple”
Jodie Foster, “Nyad”
Sandra Huller, “The Zone of Interest”
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, “The Holdovers”
Almost there: Rosamund Pike, “Saltburn,” Taraji P. Henson, “The Color Purple,” America Ferrera, “Barbie,” Penelope Cruz, “Ferrari,” Julianne Moore, “May December,” Claire Foy, “All of Us Strangers”
Lowdown: This is still a crazy fluid category. Blunt, Brooks, and Randolph are the only locks.
Performance by an actress in a leading role
Lily Gladstone, “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Sandra Huller, “Anatomy of a Fall”
Carey Mulligan, “Maestro”
Margot Robie, “Barbie”
Emma Stone, “Poor Things”
Almost there: Greta Lee, “Past Lives,” Annette Bening, “Nyad,” Natalie Portman, “May December,” Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, “Origin,” Fantasia Barrino, “The Color Purple”
Lowdown: Gladstone is on shaky ground after that BAFTA snub and would be just the second woman to win Best Actress without even earning a BAFTA nomination since 2011. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor has a shot after some intense last-minute campaigning for both “Origin” and her performance. If anyone from these five is out, it’s likely Robbie.
Best animated feature film of the year
“The Boy and the Heron”
“Elemental”
“Nimona”
“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
“Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles”
Almost there: “Robot Dreams,” “Leo,” “Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget”
Lowdown: “Robot Dreams” may knock “Nimona” out. It’s gonna be close. Assuming we could see the vote totals.
Achievement in cinematography
Hoyte van Hoytema, “Oppenheimer”
Matthew Libatique, “Maestro:
Rodrigo Prieto, “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Robbie Ryan, “Poor Things”
Łukasz Żal, “The Zone of Interest”
Almost there: Linus Sandgren, “Saltburn,” Rodrigo Prieto, “Barbie,” Ed Lachman, “El Conte,”
Lowdown: We think the international members of this branch push Zal across the finish line and Lachman is the ASC nominee who doesn’t make it.
Achievement in costume design
Jacqueline Durran, “Barbie”
Francine Jamison-Tanchuck, “The Color Purple”
Jacqueline West, “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Ellen Mirojnick, “Oppenheimer”
Holly Waddington, “Poor Things”
Almost there: Linday Hemming, “Wonka,” Mark Bridges, “Maestro”
Lowdown: If Mirojnick doesn’t make it for “Oppenheimer” then Hemming definitely will for “Wonka.”
Best documentary feature
“20 Days in Mariupol”
“American Symphony”
“Beyond Utopia”
“The Eternal Memory”
“Four Daughters”
Almost there: “32 Sounds,” “Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie,” “Bobi Wine: The People’s President”
Lowdown: We have a hard time believing this branch will reward “Still” after it took four Emmy Awards earlier this month, but anything is possible. “32 Sounds” pulled a major upset at the Cinema Eye Awards so it might slightly shock and crack the field.
Achievement in film editing
Jennifer Lame, “Oppenheimer”
Yorgos Mavropsaridis, “Poor Things”
Laurent Sénéchalt, “Anatomy of a Fall”
Kevin Tent, “The Holdovers”
Thelma Schoonmaker, “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Almost there: “Maestro,” “Ferrari,” “Barbie,” “The Zone of Interest”
Lowdown: These should be the five. Perhaps “The Zone of Interest’s” Watts, “Ferrari’s” Pietro Scalia, or “Barbie’s” Nick Houy knock Tent out, but probably unlikely at this point.
Best international feature film of the year
“Fallen Leaves”
“Perfect Days”
“The Teacher’s Lounge”
“Society of the Snow”
“The Zone of Interest”
Almost there: “The Taste of Things,” “The Promised Land,” “Totem”
Lowdown: This is a very tight race with “Taste” potentially making it over “Fallen Leaves” or “The Teacher’s Lounge.” Don’t be surprised if “Zone” is snubbed here and still earns a Best Picture nomination.
Achievement in makeup and hairstyling
“Golda”
“Maestro”
“Poor Things”
“Oppenheimer”
“Society of the Snow”
Almost there: “Killers of the Flower Moon,” “Napoleon”
Lowdown: If not “Oppenheimer,” then “Killers.”
Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score)
Robbie Robertson, “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Ludwig Göransson, “Oppenheimer”
Jerskin Fendrix, “Poor Things”
Mica Levi, “The Zone of Interest”
Daniel Pemberton, “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
Almost there: Michael Giacchino, “Society of the Snow,” Joe Hisaishi, “The Boy and the Heron,” Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt, “Barbie,” Jon Batiste, “American Symphony”
Lowdown: Göransson is taking this. The question is whether Levi (whose work is only 14 minutes) or Giacchino will join him as a nominee.
Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song)
“What Was I Made For?,” “Barbie”
“I’m Just Ken,” “Barbie”
“It Never Went Away,” “American Symphony”
“The Fire Inside,” “Flamin’ Hot”
“Am I Dreaming’,” “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
Almost there: “Can’t Catch Me Now,” “The Hunger Games: Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes,” “Road to Freedom,” “Rustin,” “Keep it Movin’,” “The Color Purple”
Lowdown: We’ve given up hoping that Diane Warren will take a year off or not campaign like her life depends on it. Even an honorary Oscar won’t stop her and this committee is so intent to vote for her as a “friend” you have to assume she’s gonna make it. “Am I Dreaming” is probably on the fringe, but it’s so much better than the songs from “Rustin” or “The Color Purple” that we’re hoping taste wins out in the category this year.
Achievement in production design
Adam Stockhausen, “Asteroid City”
Sarah Greenwood, “Barbie”
Ruth De Jong, “Oppenheimer”
Shona Heath, James Price, “Poor Things”
Jack Fisk, “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Almost there: Nathan Crowley, “Wonka,” Arthur Max, “Napoleon,” Chris Oddy, “The Zone of Interest”
Lowdown: This was a remarkable year for production designers with many of them creating massive towns and extravagant sets. Someone is gonna get embarrassingly snubbed and at this point, we’re guessing it’s Oddy.
Achievement in sound
“Ferrari”
“Maestro”
“Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One”
“Oppenheimer”
“The Zone of Interest”
Almost there: “Barbie,” “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Lowdown: Still don’t understand how “Poor Things” and “The Color Purple” didn’t make the shortlist, but those five should be set.
Achievement in visual effects
“The Creator”
“Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 3”
“Poor Things”
“Society of the Snow”
“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
Almost there: “Godzilla: Minus One,” “Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One”
Lowdown: I guess “Godzilla” could make it? Or maybe BAFTA nominee “Dead Reckoning”?
Adapted screenplay
Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach, “Barbie”
Jonathan Glazer, “The Zone of Interest”
Cord Jefferson, “American Fiction”
Tony McNamara, “Poor Things”
Christopher Nolan, “Oppenheimer”
Almost there: Andrew Haigh, “All of Us Strangers,” Kelly Fermon Craig, “Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret?”
Lowdown: The Writer’s Branch inexplicably and stupidly moving “Barbie” here instead of Original Screenplay (where it campaigned all season) will likely cost Haigh or Craig their first Oscar nomination.
Original screenplay
Sammy Burch, “May December”
Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer, “Maestro”
David Hemingson, “The Holdovers”
Celine Song, “Past Lives”
Justine Triet and Arthur Harari, “Anatomy of a Fall”
Almost there: Emerald Fennell, “Saltburn,” Alex Convery, “Air”
Lowdown: We’d give it to Fennell’s work in “Saltburn” over the convoluted script for “Maestro,” but the former is probably too polarizing to make it.
Achievement in directing
Justine Triet, “Anatomy of a Fall”
Jonathan Glazer, “The Zone of Interest”
Yorgos Lanthimos, “Poor Things”
Christopher Nolan, “Oppenheimer”
Martin Scorsese, “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Almost there: Greta Gerwig, “Barbie,” Alexander Payne, “The Holdovers,” Celine Song, “Past Lives”
Lowdown: Does Payne remain in the five after landing a DGA Award nomination? Does Gerwig somehow miss the cut for the Palme d’Or winning Triet? Is the Yorgos BAFTA snub, real? Ponder.
Best motion picture of the year
“American Fiction”
“Anatomy of a Fall”
“Barbie”
“The Holdovers”
“Killers of the Flower Moon”
“Maestro”
“Oppenheimer”
“Past Lives”
“Poor Things”
“The Zone of Interest”
Almost there: “All of Us Strangers,” “The Color Purple”
Lowdown: Many will never realize how close “Strangers” was to making it, but c’est la vie. The PGA 10 should be your Oscars 10.
The Oscar nominations will be announced at 5:30 AM PT/8:30 AM ET on Tuesday, January 23. Look or full coverage on The Playlist.