Expect multiple box office records to be squashed this weekend, as Universal’s release of Illumination’s The Super Mario Bros. Movie targets the year’s biggest debut, overtaking Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania’s $106 million opening. The animated video game adaptation launched on Wednesday with an estimated $26 million, putting it on course for an $86 million three-day and a $128 million extended five-day debut.

If projections hold, Super Mario will easily overtake Paramount’s Sonic the Hedgehog 2 and set a new record for the biggest opening weekend for a video game adaptation. Sonic the Hedgehog 2 made $72 million in its first three days of release, and grossed less on a Friday ($26 million) than what Super Mario has managed on a Wednesday. And guess what, that $128 million projection could actually be eclipsed; more bullish estimates are pegging the final tally as between $140 million and $150 million.
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Either way, Super Mario is looking at the second-biggest five-day opening for an Illumination title behind Despicable Me 2’s $143 million debut a decade ago. Based on the wildly popular video game franchise, Super Mario follows the adventures of two plumber brothers, voiced by Chris Pratt and Charlie Day, as they’re transported to a magical world where they’re caught in a conflict between warring factions.

Image via Universal Pictures

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This isn’t the first attempt at launching a movie franchise based on the Mario games; in 1993, a live-action adaptation titled Super Mario Bros. failed dramatically, and still occasionally finds a spot on lists of the worst films ever made — although it does have its share of stans. The new animated film is directed by Aaron Horvath and Michael Jelenic, and has received mixed reviews from critics. Collider’s own Ross Bonaime called it “a colorful adventure brimming with references, a joyous celebration of this franchise’s history and the history of early Nintendo, and one of the best kids films in recent years” in his review.

Nostalgia Drives Business for Video Game Movies
Video game movies have been famously hit or miss, both in terms of commercial performance and quality. While some of the most high-profile releases — Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time ($336 million worldwide) and Assassin’s Creed ($240 million worldwide), to name a couple — have notoriously flopped, adaptations of older titles, such as Sonic the Hedgehog ($319 million worldwide), Sonic the Hedgehog 2 ($405 million worldwide), Rampage ($428 million worldwide) and Detective Pikachu ($433 million worldwide), have all done rather well.

Super Mario ‘s terrific opening, no doubt aided by the complete absense of children’s fare since December’s Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, puts it on track for a healthy run at the box office. The film also features the voices of Anya Taylor-Joy, Jack Black, Keegan-Michael Key, Seth Rogen, and Fred Armisen. You can watch our interview with Pratt and Day here, and stay tuned to Collider for more updates.